The Case Against the Surge

Let me preface this article by stating my purpose. The argument to be presented is not an attempt to argue that the surge was not a good idea. Of course when you place tens of thousands of troops in a war zone, things will calm down. My purpose is to show that the surge was not the reason for the decline in violence in Iraq, and will do nothing in the long run to stabilize the nation.  That being said…

 

 

In order to understand the Surge, one must understand the war. The United States invaded Iraq in March of 2003 with three stated goals: Liberate the Iraqi people, Disarm Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction, and take out the Al- Qaeda operatives in the nation. As history would show, Iraq did not have, or had moved, their Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Al – Qaeda only entered Iraq AFTER the U.S. invasion. (More on this later) However, despite all the criticisms, the Iraqi people were freed and Saddam; a brutal, muderous dicator, was taken off his throne.

In the first few months after the war, the remaining scraps of Iraq’s army and Saddam’s Guard continued to engage the American forces. Eventually the U.S. forces prevailed and George W. Bush delievered his notorious “Mission Accomplished” speech. This is the exact moment that the war begins.

For the first few months of the war, after the United States military disbanded the Iraqi army and began “Deba’athification” , both the Sunni and Shia militas were in a power struggle for the country. Both factions were attacking U.S. military targets in an attempt to defeat the United States and take control of the country. Interestingly, the militant groups also begin attacking Iraqi security forces, and Iraqi’s who were working with the United States. There is a relatively low level of violence during this time, but violence nontheless.

In 2005 Iraqi’s were able to hold their first elections. Images across the world are displayed of Iraqi citizens with purple ink on their fingers. The Shia majority gains control of the government with the election of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Immediately, the Sunni population begins a boycott of the government, and the split between the Sunni and Shia becomes increasingly wider.

Right after the elections there is actually a recorded drop in violence. In response, about 15,000 U.S. soldiers are withdrawn. However; in May of 2005 more than 700 Iraqi civilians and 79 U.S. troops are killed in a series of attacks set up by the Sunni insurgency in response to the elections and to the  destable situation in their country.  In 2006, the Al-Askari Mosque, one of Shia Islam’s holiest sites, is bombed, igniting a civil war. The United States government calculates that in the month following the bombing, the homicide rate triples in number.  At this point, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health finds that more than 600,000 Iraqi’s have died since the war began; less than 1/3 of them by U.S. hands.  In Novemeber Sunni militas continue their relentless killing spree by killing 215 people in one day.

In January 2007 the Surge stratgey is announced. 20,000 additional troops are added to Iraq, and tours of duty are extended. Things seem to be going somewhat smoothly. However Fox News reports that the number servicemen reporting AWOL has increased and further, on August 14th, 2007, the deadliest day of the war is reported. Since then, violence has begun to gradually drop.

The United States military begins to put the Sunni milita’s on the Government payroll (bet you’re glad you’re paying taxes now) in an effort to quell the violence. From this moment on both the Shia government backed by Muqtada al-Sadr’s milita and the several Sunni milita’s are now working together to drive al-Qaeda from Iraq in conjuction with the US military.

Now things seem to be looking good. Violence is down. There is relative peace in the region. How could this not be working? The answer lies in one man. (And it isn’t Osama, Saddam, or George Bush)

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (henceforth Zarqawi) was a fundamental Islamic militant. When the United States invaded Afghanistan, he was there. And when news got to him that the United States had invaded Iraq, he had to be there. Zarqawi arrived in Iraq a few months after the United States invasion.  He met with Osama bin Laden’s military cheif, Muhammad Ibrahim Makawi, in an effort to bring Al-Qaeda forces to the battlefield. Soon the U.S. was finding corpses from militants from all over the globe; from the Phillipine Islands to Jordan.  According to the Jamestown Foundation, Zarqawi had four main strategic goals in Iraq. One was to the get other nations helping the U.S. out of Iraq. A simple bombing of a UN convoy, and a few bombs set off in major European cities quickly resolved that. Second he wanted to make sure that Iraqi citizens stopped helping the United States. This was seen in the immediate months after the invasion as I stated above when Iraqi security forces began being murdered by the hundreds. Third was to stop reconstruction efforts in the country. He tried to do this by publicly kidnapping and murdering civilian contractors, humanitarian aid workers, and foreigners. Fourth and finally, he wanted to set Shia and Sunni militias against each other igniting a civil war, putting the U.S. in the middle of it. This was seen in the bombing of the Al-Askari Mosque as well as the countless murders of civilians on a almost daily basis.

In an open letter to Osama Bin Laden he stated:

“Targeting and striking their [Shia Muslims] religious, political ,and military symbols, will make them show their rage against the Sunni’s and bear their inner vengance. If we succeed in dragging them into a sectarian war, this will awaken the sleeping Sunni’s who are fearful of destruction and death”

 

Unfortunately, he is successful in all four goals.

In the early years of the war Zarqawi is hailed as a military hero to Al-Qaeda. They say he is a strong face to a weakening system. It is reported by the Chicago Tribune that Osama bin Laden actually requested that Zarqawi get inside the United States and committ acts of terror, but he was unable to do so. After the 2005 elections however, it appears that Al-Qaeda leaders begin to question his intentions. He is increasingly more violent to the Shia Muslims and needs to be reminded by Osama bin Laden to focus on the U.S. military.

 Zarqawi is finally hunted down and killed by the U.S. military on June 7th, 2006. The months immediately following his death saw a spike in violence. In fact, violence in Iraq grew throughout 2006 until the hanging of Saddam in Decemeber.

After his death, there was still much sectarian fighting in the region. Zarqawi succeeded in his goal of driving Iraqi’s apart.  But now what is the situation on the ground? There are still severe tensions between the two factions, with the U.S. standing in the way putting both sides in separate corners. According to the Matthew Duss Research Associate for the Center for American Progress, there are still about 90,000 Sunni milita members expecting goverment paid jobs and little sign that the Shia controlled goverment can/intends to provide them.

Now, John McCain, a strong supporter of the surge, has said that it is perfectly acceptable to sit there for 100 years and keep these two factions from killing each other, but sooner or later there is going to be more hostility, whether American lives are in the mix or not. What needs to be done is all politics. The Iraqi government needs to be able to reach out to the Sunni population of their nation. They need to work hard to mend the divide between the two sides. All the U.S. military is doing is playing peace keeper. In order for Iraq to work, it needs to have an incentive to act. If the U.S. military begins to back down slowly, the Shia government will understand that it is now their responsibilty to deal with the poor and angry Sunni militas.  After reporting close to an 80 billion dollar surplus from oil revenues, they are more than able to provide for all the people who need it.

 

All the troops in the world cannot fight against emotion. The only way to deal with human emotion, is with human emotion. Sunni’s must shake the hand of their Shia brother and realize that their fate’s are dependant upon one another. While the Surge did succeed in keeping the two angry dogs out of the fight, it does little to take the fight out of the two dogs.

 

 

Let the conversaiton begin

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Tags: Politics, Surge, The Surge

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